San Diego State and UConn have done this dance once before.
The Huskies beat the Aztecs in the Sweet 16 on their path to a national championship in 2011. More than a decade later, the two programs meet again Monday night, this time with a title on the line.
Their respective journeys through the men’s NCAA Tournament are stark in comparison. No. 5 SDSU’s last two wins were both by just one point, most recently on a buzzer-beater in the Final Four. No. 4 Connecticut, on the other hand, has rolled through its March Madness opponents with an average margin of victory of more than 20 points.
San Diego State handled No. 12 Charleston and No. 13 Furman in the first and second rounds before executing a huge upset against No. 1 Alabama. But the last two games against No. 6 Creighton and No. 9 Florida Atlantic came down to the final seconds. Darrion Trammell’s free throw with 1.2 seconds left on the clock was the difference against the Blue Jays and Lamont Butler drained a game-winning buzzer-beater to get past the Owls.
UConn blew out essentially every team in its path: No. 13 Iona, No. 8 Arkansas and No. 2 Gonzaga were all beaten by 20-plus points. The closest games of the tournament for the Huskies are a 15-point win over No. 5 Saint Mary’s and a 13-point victory over No. 5 Miami in the Final Four.
As such, the Aztecs enter the championship game as 7.5-point underdogs, the most points they’ve gotten all season. Connecticut is in a familiar position as the favorite and Dan Hurley’s team has consistently delivered with a 26–11–1 mark against the spread, the second-best cover percentage in the country.
National Championship Game Odds: San Diego State vs. UConn
Time: 9:20 p.m. ET | CBS
Spread: San Diego State +7.5 (-110) | UConn -7.5 (-118)
Moneyline: SDSU (+290) | UCONN (-400)
Over/Under: 132.5 – Over (-110) | Under (-118)
San Diego State vs. UConn Best Bet: UConn -7.5 (-118)
UConn was held to 72 points by the Hurricanes, the team’s second-lowest offensive total of the tournament. But once again, its defense delivered by holding a high-powered offense to just 59 points. UM was held to 32% shooting and lost the rebounding battle, 41-32. Adama Sanogo finished with 21 points and 10 boards, his third double double in five games.
Only Jordan Hawkins joined Sanogo in double figures with 13 points after he scored 20 and 24 in the previous two games. He also connected on three more three-pointers for the fifth consecutive game. Even though Connecticut lost the turnover battle, 15-9, and hit a total of seven free throws in the game, a 13-point halftime lead was still plenty of cushion.
The Huskies operate at a slow tempo, similar to the Aztecs, but they are brutally efficient on offense and suffocating on defense. They shoot the three well enough (35.7%) and take the outside shot away from their opponents (29.8%). Either Sanogo or Hawkins has led the team in scoring in each tournament game so far and Andre Jackson Jr., Alex Karaban and Tristen Newton, among others, have all stepped up, too.
It was Butler’s shot that decided the game, but Matt Bradley delivered his best performance of the tournament against FAU. SDSU’s leading scorer on the season scored a combined eight points against Alabama and Creighton before he erupted for 21 points and four threes in the Final Four. And when Bradley has been off, Butler, Trammell and Micah Parrish have all stepped up on offense.
The Aztecs are powered by their top-five defense, which allowed 71 points to the Owls, the most any team has managed against them. Before that, only the Crimson Tide had broken 60—their other three opponents all finished in the 50s. San Diego State also excels at taking away the three (28.2%), but it’s nowhere near as potent on offense as UConn. Brian Dutcher’s team averages just 72.1 points per game on the year and Bradley is the only player who has a double-digit scoring average.
The way the Huskies are rolling, it only seems fitting that they cap their run off with another win—and cover—on the sport’s biggest stage. The Aztecs have shown they have what it takes to keep an offense of UConn’s caliber in check, but against a fellow elite defensive team they may be hard-pressed to put up enough points to keep this game within eight.
NCAA Tournament Betting Record
First Four: 3–1
Round of 64: 3–3
Sweet 16: 2–2
Elite Eight: 2–0
Final Four: 1–1
Overall: 11–7